The National Math Behind Utah's Data Center Bets — and Who Works There
A global consulting firm says the AI building boom is running ahead of the money needed to pay for it. Utah's proposed campuses are among the largest in the country. Here is what the public record shows about their size, the risk, and the people who will work inside them.
The Weber County Hive — We report public records. You decide.
$4.2 trillion
yearly AI revenue Bain says must come from markets that don't exist yet
~29 GW
proposed and under-construction data center campuses in Utah, at full planned size
2,000–3,250
permanent data center jobs the state forecasts for all of Utah by 2030
0
Utah records found that report how many of those workers are local
Words to know
Tap or click a card to flip it.
The national math
On Sept. 29, 2026, Bain & Company published a report on what it will take to pay for the artificial intelligence building boom. In plain terms:
The five biggest tech spenders (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Oracle) could spend about $780 billion on buildout in 2026, nearly five times what they spent three years earlier.
The largest AI data centers today are near 1 gigawatt. Bain expects 2-gigawatt facilities by 2027 and 9-gigawatt campuses by about 2030.
To support that spending, Bain estimates the industry needs about $6 trillion a year in revenue by 2031. Today's products could bring in $1.2 to $1.8 trillion.
flowchart LR
A["Revenue Bain says is needed $6 trillion a year"] --> B["From products that exist today $1.2 – 1.8 trillion"]
A --> C["From markets not built yet about $4.2 trillion"]
C --> D["AI search ads Self-driving vehicles Robots and factories New products"]
Read this as a forecast
Bain is a consulting firm that sells AI services. Its numbers are estimates built on its own assumptions, including that spending equals about 25% of industry revenue. Bain's own conclusion is that the buildings are going up ahead of demand, and whether new uses arrive in time to pay for them is an open question.
Where Utah sits on that curve
Bain describes 9 gigawatts as the size of the very largest campuses expected by the end of the decade. Utah already has proposals at that scale.
Pins are approximate, placed at the town or valley named in public records. Click a pin for details.
Project
Location
Size listed
Status
Creekstone Delta Gigasite
Delta, Millard County
more than 10 GW
Under construction
Stratos Project
Hansel Valley, Box Elder County
7.5 GW (9 GW at full build-out per the Sierra Club)
Proposed
Joule campus
Holden, Millard County
4 GW
Under construction
Tract Pole Canyon
Eagle Mountain
1.7 GW
Proposed
Antelope Data Campus / Red Butte
Iron County
1.5 GW each
Proposed
Source: Salt Lake Tribune data center map, Sept. 25, 2026.
The Governor's Office of Economic Development (GOED), presenting to the Legislature's Economic Development and Workforce Services Interim Committee on Aug. 19, 2026, reported that Utah has 48 operating data centers with more than 1 gigawatt of capacity, and that projects under construction will add 2.6 gigawatts. The Tribune's table, which lists each campus at its full planned size, adds up to roughly 29 gigawatts. Those figures measure different things (current construction phases versus full build-out), but both point the same direction.
Who carries the risk if demand doesn't arrive
Bain is writing for investors. In Utah, some of the tools used to build these projects are public ones.
Stratos. The Master Development Agreement allows the developer to ask MIDA to form public infrastructure districts that could use the developer's 80% share of payments as security for bonds (§13). Neither party may terminate the agreement (§15). MIDA's own document page says the agreement is still a draft and unsigned. Stratos case file →
Tooele Valley. The Utah Inland Port Authority approved a $4.875 million short-term loan to Zenith Bolinder, the data center developer, with listed uses that include a power plant. That loan has been paid off.
Sales tax. Utah's data center sales tax exemption, rewritten by S.B. 114 in 2020, applies regardless of how the project performs.
None of this shows anyone did anything wrong. It shows where public money and public tools sit if a national forecast turns out to be too optimistic.
Who works there?
Stratos shows the lowest construction figure given (4,000). Another spokesperson figure was 10,000. Stratos's 2,000 permanent jobs is a claim; no tenant has been announced.
Pick a project
Project
Construction workers
Permanent jobs after
Who said it
Meta, Eagle Mountain
1,200+ at peak
200 "supported"; a few dozen employees to run it (2021). Stated as 300+ for the expanded campus (2026)
Meta, via Deseret News
QTS, Eagle Mountain ($6 billion)
2,000+
about 100, counting employees, tenants and contractors
QTS
Stratos, Box Elder County
4,000 to 10,000
2,000 claimed; no tenant announced
Project spokespeople
Creekstone, Delta
"thousands"
106
GOED presentation, Aug. 19, 2026
Joule, Holden
not disclosed
not disclosed
—
All of Utah
—
2,000 to 3,250 by 2030
GOED presentation, Aug. 19, 2026
Stratos's figures have varied. The Tribune reported 4,000 construction jobs on May 8, 2026; Forbes reported 10,000 on June 9. O'Leary Ventures CEO Paul Palandjian later described about 4,000 workers over 10 to 15 years and said the numbers change daily. A University of Southern California analysis cited by TechRepublic estimated the permanent figure closer to 1,350.
Nationally, the permanent number is small by design. A Brookings study of about 1,500 U.S. data centers (Bahar and Wright, updated Aug. 10, 2026) found roughly 100 to 200 jobs created per county that gets its first major data center. Wages did not change. Home prices rose 2% to 5%.
Forecasts get revised. Georgia's state audit first projected 5,471 data center operations jobs. A January 2026 revision cut that to 1,641, and construction jobs from 28,350 to 8,505. Georgia's exemption cost $474 million in the fiscal year ending July 2025.
Are the workers local?
The short answer
No Utah record reviewed for this case file reports how many data center workers are local, or even Utah residents.
flowchart TD
A["S.B. 114 sales tax exemption"] --> A1["Requires no jobs at all"]
B["EDTIF / REDTIF credits"] --> B1["Require jobs at set pay levels"]
C["Stratos interlocal agreement (draft)"] --> C1["Yearly employee count to county may be marked confidential"]
A1 --> Q["Where workers live: not reported anywhere"]
B1 --> Q
C1 --> Q
The main state tax break requires no jobs at all. Utah first exempted large data centers from sales tax on equipment in 2016. S.B. 114 (2020), with Sen. Kirk Cullimore as primary sponsor and Rep. Mike Schultz as House sponsor, rewrote the exemption and extended it to companies that lease space inside a qualifying data center. Its definition of a qualifying data center lists six conditions, and none is jobs, wages or investment. It passed unanimously, and its fiscal note listed the cost as "unknown." In July 2026, State Auditor Tina Cannon said Utah still has no system to calculate what it costs.
The state's jobs-based incentive measures pay, not residence. GOED's Aug. 19 slides list wage standards for EDTIF (110% of the county's average wage) and REDTIF (100%). They list no residency standard. The one data center GOED has given a state credit to, Creekstone near Delta, gets 50% of new state tax revenue back for 20 years on a projected $17 billion+ investment and 106 permanent jobs, according to GOED's slide 9. GOED case file →
Stratos's documents plan for workers who don't live nearby. The draft interlocal agreement bans housing in the project area except "temporary housing for construction workers." The Development Standards allow lodging for employees and RV parks in the mixed-use zone, and hotel rooms are capped at 150 for the entire 40,000 acres. A project spokesperson told the Tribune construction workers would be housed on site.
The contractors' trade group expects outside hiring. An Associated General Contractors of America analyst told KUTV that contractors often turn to outside firms and unions because local labor pools are small in places like Box Elder County.
Millard County had 13,437 residents in 2023. Two of the largest proposed campuses in the country are planned there.
When jobs are the condition
flowchart LR
A["Company promises jobs"] --> B["State pays credits after jobs exist"]
B --> C["Tyson: 723 jobs, up to $5.26 million"]
C --> D["Plant closes Oct. 12, 2026 5 years into a 10-year deal"]
D --> E["Credits stop. Recovery of past credits: not established"]
Utah does have an incentive tied to jobs. Tyson Foods received a state tax-credit agreement worth up to $5.26 million for its Eagle Mountain plant. The plant is closing five years into a ten-year agreement, with 723 jobs lost. Credits stop when the jobs stop. Whether any credits already paid can be recovered has not been established in the records reviewed.
The other side
Some counties prefer few jobs. Millard County Commissioner Bill Wright told Utah Business that data centers are preferable to an employer that brings hundreds of new residents who need houses and schools.
Utah companies get work. QTS built with Utah-based Layton Construction and steel suppliers from Cedar City.
The tax money is real. Former Eagle Mountain Mayor Tom Westmoreland said the Meta land brought in "$35 annually" in taxes before the project. Current Mayor Jared Gray told the Tribune data centers are "literally what funds our general fund." Meta case file →
What the record shows
Bain's report says the national buildout is running ahead of proven demand. Utah's proposed campuses are sized at the top of that curve. The state's own forecast is a few thousand permanent jobs statewide. And no Utah record reviewed shows how many of those jobs, or the thousands of construction jobs before them, go to Utahns.
People in this record
Sen. Kirk CullimorePrimary sponsor of S.B. 114 (2020), the data center sales tax exemption with no jobs requirement. S.B. 114 → · H.B. 507 →
Rep. Mike SchultzHouse sponsor of S.B. 114. Holds land near the Stratos site. S.B. 114 → · Stratos land →
Kevin O'LearyInvestor behind Stratos; public source of the 10,000 construction / 2,000 permanent jobs figures. Stratos →
Paul PalandjianO'Leary Ventures CEO; described about 4,000 construction workers over 10 to 15 years.
Tina CannonUtah State Auditor; said in July 2026 the state cannot calculate what the S.B. 114 exemption costs. S.B. 114 →
Bill WrightMillard County Commissioner; prefers data centers to employers that bring large population growth.
Jared Gray & Tom WestmorelandCurrent and former Eagle Mountain mayors; on record about data center tax revenue. Meta →
Questions to ask, and whom to ask
Box Elder County Commission
Will Stratos's yearly employee reports be public, or marked confidential?
Governor's Office of Economic Development (GOED)
GOED's 2,000-to-3,250 jobs forecast cites the Gardner Policy Institute. Does it count Utah residents, or everyone working on site?
Millard County Commission
How many workers on the Creekstone and Joule sites live in Millard County?
Eagle Mountain City Council
How many of Meta's and QTS's permanent staff live in Eagle Mountain?
Your state legislators
Should Utah's data center tax exemption carry a jobs or local-hire requirement?
Sources and how they were read
Bain & Company, Technology Report 2026, "New Innovation Is Required to Fund AI's $6 Trillion Buildout," Crawford, Tagawa, Boles & Quinn, Sept. 29, 2026 — bain.com. Read in full from the page text.
Governor's Office of Economic Development, "Data Center Initiatives," presented to the EDWS Interim Committee, Aug. 19, 2026 — le.utah.gov. Jobs forecast (slide 11, citing the Gardner Policy Institute, March 2026) and Creekstone figures (slide 9) checked against the PDF text and the Hive's GOED case file.
Salt Lake Tribune, "Utah data center map: Track new developments across the state," Harkins & Larsen, Sept. 25, 2026. Table pages 1–7 read from pasted capture; GW total is this publication's sum of listed figures.
Brookings, "New evidence on data center employment effects," Bahar & Wright, updated Aug. 10, 2026 — brookings.edu
The Current GA / Capitol Beat, revised Georgia audit, Jan. 15, 2026 — thecurrentga.org
KUTV, "Experts question job projections for massive Utah data center," May 11, 2026 — kutv.com
TechRepublic, "Kevin O'Leary's 'Wonder Valley' Data Center Advances as Job Estimates Shift" — techrepublic.com
Utah Business, "Rural Utah's data center boom," Nov. 5, 2025 — utahbusiness.com
KSL, "723 jobs being lost as Tyson Foods closes Eagle Mountain facility," Aug. 14, 2026 — ksl.com
Utah Legislature, S.B. 114 (2020), enrolled text, Utah Code §59-12-102(106) and §59-12-104(84) — le.utah.gov. Read from the enrolled text as pasted; brackets show the July 1, 2016 date was already in law before S.B. 114.
EDCUtah, "Utah levels the playing field for data centers: five questions for Thomas Wadsworth of GOED," Dec. 3, 2020 (S.B. 114 extended the 2016 exemption to tenants) — edcutah.org
MIDA, Stratos Master Development Agreement, Interlocal Cooperation Agreement and Development Standards — draft and unsigned as posted by MIDA; read in full or relevant part Sept. 4, 2026.
UIPA, "Who Qualifies for AIB Loans" and 2024 Annual Report (Zenith Bolinder loan) — inlandportauthority.utah.gov
Deseret News, Art Raymond, Oct. 4, 2021 and Sept. 30, 2022; Salt Lake Tribune, May 8, 2026 and Jan. 14, 2026; Forbes, June 9, 2026.